Man's greatness is not in never falling but rising every-time he falls

A weblog of R.K.Gurumurthy

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Ctrl + S


I don’t know if English has a word to describe ‘fear of losing data’. But surely,  I have this well-recognised and difficult-to-overcome weakness of using  Ctrl+S almost every minute I type out something. Therefore I wanted to rummage through my old trunk to see what all have still been retained over the years.

Right from my first salary slip at State bank – to statement of account for almost all the years i  am employed - to copies (and extra photocopies) of my travel tickets (I don’t travel much so everytime I get to travel I must have taken printouts and many copies of the same) – to my first mobile handset of 1996 and the various defunct sim cards – to copies and more photocopies and further more Xerox copies of my passport (not just this, I found 12 copies of my daughter’s passport who is just 4 and would have hardly traveled), I stumbled into a warehouse of records that stands out for its redundancy of safety - defying logic and bordering on stupidity, if not exaggerated fear.  The best thing is I have a few boxes containing the almost-forgotten diskettes and floppy disks and I don’t even know what lies inside them. This is in addition to the half a dozen pen-drives and  HDDs. Have some 1,500 horoscope details of people as famous as Winston Churchil to as infamous as the rapist in Brookesfield. The funniest thing about this junk is I have some 2,000 odd sms messages in those disused mobile handsets, 25k odd mails  in back-up formats and 100 odd hand-written letters from various people - all, a veritable source of mirth and mystery.

Some of my friends tell me I have the best filing-system but they  better take a leaf out of my book to top theirs of “Don’ts..”. Life would be far more peaceful if there were fewer references available on any subject.

Hour Wise Day Foolish

    
Trying to save a few hours to devote for something very critically important, i end up spending a full day tending the wounded soul of a good friend. 

Man thinks of his monumental blunders in contrast to his spectacular achievements - what lies between these extremes is the daily life. This is better brought out by Schopenhauer "Opinion obeys the same law as the swing of the pendulum: if it goes beyond the center of gravity on one side, it must go as far beyond on the other. It is only after a time that it finds the true point of rest and remains stationary". 

Not sure if an hiatus would ever work, i am back. Taking a Miltonian approach '...they also serve who only stand and wait' 

Hiatus

           
Examples i could cite you more;
But be content with these four;
For when one's proofs are aptly chosen
Four are as valid as four dozen.
                                                    MP

Am taking a short break from blogging - have some urgent work to focus upon.  As  i mentioned sometime ago, have taken many things for granted in life. No better time than now to prioritize!! 


Desires

   
Not to set foot on the moon or go anywhere beyond my means and milieu, but visit these places near Bombay;


Insanity

     
People who go insane find in insanity a feeling of importance they were unable to achieve in a world of harsh realities. Not everything is always fair. In life, no man can be utterly impartial. Personal preferences, public taste, subconscious bias, enter into any decision or choice he makes.  I have always loved this quote "Adversity is the trial of principle. Without it a man hardly knows whether he is honest or not".
      

Well Connected Dots

                                        
My wife must have been taking me for an unemployed and possibly to motivate me, she gifted me this book - "Connect the Dots" by Rashmi Bansal .

I hardly read. Many years ago i made a new year resolution that i will not read others' works because that would kill my thinking power.  When you read and follow, the other person does the thinking for you. 

And lately, have been so focused in my trading career that nothing interests me that is not about a new trading technique. That needs to change. Obsession kills. People are often ruined in the side of their strengths. 

This book is a good collection of short essays about successful people who have made it to the top all by themselves. By their exemplary entrepreneurial skills. That way, it complements my belief in life - nothing succeeds like hard work. 

Thanks Deeps!!

Drugs, Accidents, Scandals and Sports

                            
I could have plainly written CWG as this much anticipated sports event that could have been the simplest way to showcase our heritage and growing clout as a super-power gets underway. If not strictly in that sequence, the keenly awaited sports event in the capital is suffering a dress rehearsal like the caption.

First we had reports on corruption. Then the ban on athletes suspected of drug abuse. A bridge collapse. Floods. Sting on security (where in the world can this happen). Overseas athletes pulling out. What more to come.. If you pen down all these incidents on a piece of paper and tried to link it to a country or center, India could hardly have been the name. But it is.

We Indians lack pride. Scams and scandals are interwoven in the fabric of our society. Corruption and embezzlement is a way of life for some. But could we all not have rallied together to support a super event like this. I don't know if it is an irresponsible way to react but i strongly deplore the role of the media (i am sure  many reporters currently covering the Delhi Floods will be thoroughly disappointed if Yamuna doesn't cross the 410m mark). Like the ignorant grandma, i will have to sit through the next few weeks with prayer on lips and beads in hand.

Like a  popular new channel kept flashing, it is Common Wealth Games and not Commonwealth Games.

On Being Advised

                    
'Take the pace of a royal elephant and don't mind a few barking dogs alongside' I got this piece of advice from one of my mentors. That was a very powerful advice. How many people would you come across that takes serious interest in others' welfare. 

When i probed him why he said what he said, he further advised. 'One of the wonders of the world is that obviously intelligent people make elementary but serious errors in thinking'. That was a bit confusing for me as he was talking about intelligent people and we were only two of us.

Whatever, it makes us feel good when we are cared for.  Read this somewhere on bringing up children 'They may forget all you said. They will never forget how you made them feel'. How profound!

Thus Spake...

  
News Item :"India’s Planning Commission watched ‘Peepli Live’ to gauge the common man's perception of major government programmes....."

Was that a fashion statement or is it  possible that the Planning Commission's secretariat has been moved to Washington after 26/11.

Should we then exhort the film producers' guild to produce more movies on social issues so that the decision maker is able to get a glimpse of realities. 

Economic Chicanery


News Item: "The US recession had ended in June 2009......."

Was it on the 19th of June 2009 at 0847 hours EST?



ps: why am i so critical today - moodswings, perhaps!!
   

Dabang


Torture to a troubled mind - if cinema is a source of providing you escapement and relief from life's travails, it can sometimes add to your miseries, too.

Had so much of expectations (didn't actually read any review) that i wanted to sit through another 'GangaJal' kind of experience. Perhaps my preference for such surrealism  was driven by a need to puncture a society that was deceit laden.

Whatever, the movie appeared to be a remix of Quick Gun Murugan. Re-recording, the sole plus point. A talent like Mahesh Manjrekar is thoroughly wasted.
  


Toast of Twenties - Sensex at 20k again!

  
Not just cricket, even the stock market index in India has a date with Twenty.

Sensex scales the 20 thousand mark yet again.

The previous time it covered this handle, it was with tremendous momentum and large divergences. This time around, the move up has been by and large a slow grind and seemingly sustained.  And no divergence in key momentum indicators except in the dailies. But beware the ides of September. If i had my trading portfolio, i would be looking to book profit and square up. No one died taking profits.

Valuation-wise, one-year forward PE at around 21 for the Sensex is way ahead of the rest of the investment destinations and any investment decision, therefore,  needs to be tempered with caution.


An Astrologer's Moment

     
Like all traders, who are as good as their last trades, here is a moment of glory for the astrologer in yours truly.  Sometime back (Jan 25th to be precise) someone asked me what the future held for him in his career and if he will buy fixed assets, and showed his birth chart for analysis. Not someone to let go an opportunity like that in my spare time, i had a look at the chart (printed below) and said something like what follows:




  • Will certainly invest in a fixed property
  • Will win lottery
  • Will suffer unexpectedly large losses in investments
  • Will adopt a baby (as opposed to giving birth)
  • Not to lend, be vigilant
  • Will change job
  • Will move to distant places
  • And a few other personal delineations
Very surprisingly, the person writes back to ask what are the chances of me being wrong in the last three, more precisely the penultimate two.  Apparently he has lived to realize the first 5. Like all beneficiaries, he is yet to give his fees (usually Re 1) and details of how the first 5 materialized.
 
The biggest mystery for me is how is it  that astrology fails or is totally off-mark on some occasions (belonging to the half-glass full race!!). If i had a way to unravel that, life would be on a different plane, ain't it?

  

Reactions

       
Human reaction to an event is almost always similar through generations i suspect.

Had an experience recently of a mishap - where there was an incident, a perpetrator or two for sure, a handful of witnesses and a dozen odd self-proclaimed sleuths whose purpose in life was to die in Page 3. While the real incident or its fate is of little consequence, i am reminded of another entry in my old book.  I had written this some 21 years ago when i happened to see my couple-friend burn to death, alive. That was the goriest of anything i will ever get to see.  If their death was an irreparable loss to me, the trauma of handling public reaction and gossip was monumentally difficult - merely because i was present there or solitarily privy to their lives.

Extract from my diary against 2nd April 1989.

.......This is what happens when there are some witnesses to any incident - each one waits for another person to make the first move and then a collective paralysis sets in. A majority of them tries to pretend that nothing has happened or at any rate, there is nothing they could have done to prevent it and there is the minority Sherlock Holmes tribe that is looking to pillory anyone that was an inconvenience anywhere anytime. In the end, everyone gets everything but the real facts...


The Joy of Giving


Yes,  i am borrowing that phrase from a  legend.  Imitation is the best form of admiration. One of my bosses used to say 'we should give back to market what it gives us - liquidity'. Great thought.  I have always yearned to spend life in backward areas, teaching children. My present responsibility of having to support a few lives around me and the wafer thin bank balance are big deterrents. So what... I have someone with me who does this work with passion. Yet to get full-time into this, her sporadic effort is indeed something that i would want to emulate. 

Even if one of the above becomes educated, the mission is a success.


On a related note, i found this piece about education absolutely brilliant - again from my book and quite likely a straight lift.

Education is a companion
No misfortune can depress
No clime can destroy
No enemy alienate
No despotism enslave
At home, a friend
Abroad, an introduction
In society, an ornament
And in solitude, a solace...

How true

 

The Indian Rupee

 
Having started trading currencies in early 90s, i had the opportunity to quote Indian Rupee as a 100-unit base- currency. A Rupee trader is a rare commodity and a good rupee trader is rarer. For all those tracking rupee market over the last many decades, there are a number of milestones. Those twin devaluations, then the LERMS - which was the most messy part of life - and finally the real liberalisation process, we have come that proverbial 'long way'. Rupee is now talked about by everyone globally. I had always wanted to know how currency trading, rupee especially, was like in the 60s or 70s or even 80s but even google doesnt throw much light. Got this interesting data on how the rupee has moved in the last 37 years.

(These are average rates for the year - by courtesy of Forecast-Chart)

The Economy

   
RBI hiked yet again - this time the hike also tantamounted to a narrowing of the LAF corridor. It could be too early to think that  it is the beginning of a regime that would ultimately lead to a single policy rate and the re-emergence of Bank Rate as a signal rate. The decision to hike was logically compelling and it goes to RBI's credit that it yet again demonstrated its independence on monetary matters. From a market perspective, this could well be close to a last in the series of hikes as we may have reached  that vague theoretical 'normalisation' level. Normalisation of rates is much like the poverty-line concept of those days. We used to joke in our college days that the best way to move more people above poverty line is to lower the very line itself.

The next moves from now on should be on CRR or other tools that impact liquidity directly. With Credit to Deposit ratio showing appreciable downturn, policy transmission  gains that much more traction  by fair-pricing of liquidity.


Creative Relationships - Do they work?

  
There are stories galore of a pair or a group of people working together and being successful  while there are equally distressing stories of brothers falling apart. Be it business or any walk of life, how do two people - who would otherwise be perfectly capable and talented in their own ways - explode into brilliance while working together.. I have tried to understand the chemistry of this human behaviour in my disarranged reading habits. Finally some success..

The article offers an excellent insight into the psychology of collaboration. Was so impressed by the subject and the author's other works, am inclined to post it here.



A Day to Remember


My Best Friend celebrates her birthday today.

I wouldn't be whatever i am today if not for her intervention in my life. That was one of the few divine interventions i would cherish most.

The best way i can describe this great soul is to borrow from Lord Byron " Beauty without vanity, strength without insolence, courage without ferocity - All virtues of mankind without his foibles" . God Bless you mate.


The Inner Voice


Hxkdkdj  bkieie@3   7yhxbf  Tm  @&&&@ nbsbsdf mkdo Ahdkk  eheek d  jekwow hbie e  ejjeiei 21&^%  audkleq dk$  Lkka&  9dnwei adlsk  unhg@  pnbhg$  kimn ghuy$  jskddee 7opmnheu &6y lkji,mn  amd . ow hbi ieisbsdf mkd.

No,  that’s  not a coded message for someone. It is one of  my sophisticated  methods to vent out my frustrations and disappointments.

All of a sudden the new blog address is drawing more attention and I am getting some valuable suggestions alongside lots of questions. Some are also angry with me.  Isn’t it true that man would  forgive most things if he knew the facts.  I also want to state this blog is not a forum for public debate – it’s my mind’s jotting pad where my thoughts and my thoughts alone find some form of expression.

My focus is also a little different these days. For a large part of the last decade I had taken many things for granted. I suppose that life has it's own way of reminding us not to take anything for granted. So it has  now my fullest  and singularly undiluted attention. 


A Fusion to remember

  
I have often turned away from such 'ensemble' albums whenever i visit music stores.  Partly due to a fear of suffering a cacophony and partly due to my ignorance to appreciate, much less understand, jazz or any of the fusion forms.

This sabattical helped me listen to a performance by Rajesh Vaidya on Veena to the accompaniment of  a few brilliant players on keyboard and drums. Charukesi and Valachi were treated with such intricate brilliance that i wondered how he managed to tight-rope walk the nuances of Da Sa and Sa Da Pa when playing the latter. Malayamarutham and Valachi are often gray areas for me but today the subtlety was brilliantly  discernible..

Rajesh is really a master in his own way. And am glad to realize that he played Veena for a music album i helped bringing out some 12 years ago!!


Random Thoughts


The mind is sometimes a seething cauldron. Could well be because human beings judge a dilemma in life according to the mental fabric they are made of. Their own upbringing and their personal experiences in life often colour their judgement and a rational view most often becomes a rarity – rather a psychological impossibility. 

I am fighting hard to recollect a few events of a none-too-distant past. In a muddled mind, it’s a mental warfare. Memories are like candles in a dark room – no more than tiny spots of brilliance which, when viewed through the lens of time, darken, distort and grow dimmer.

The beauty of someone fighting for truth is that he wins either ways. If the ruler concedes his demand, the cause of truth is advanced and therefore he wins. If the ruler does not, the truth of what he has been saying about the ruler is established further (this is from my book - not sure if it is my original work)

A correction that is overdue

  
Stephenvita has this nice article about how markets display prolonged periods of oversold state and how if a fat tail takes hold, these metrics lose value. Dow index has more than 90% of its stocks above the 10 day moving average and at year's high.





On a less related note, there is a great article Habits of Mind by a great mind that calls itself Without Geometry, Life is Pointless. Please read on - it is still work in progress and some of my learned colleagues can contribute too..
  

Depressed and Depression

   
Happened to read a good article by Paul Krugman where he compares the Japanese economy of the 90s to the modern day US economy and goes on to explain how the former is somewhat depressed but not in depression. Appears to be  an exercise in semantics to the uninitiated but there is a whale of analytical truth between the two. 

This is said about man - 'the reasonable man adapts himself to the world. The unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man'.  It could well become true of economics and the path of prosperity
 

The Road to Success


Many years ago i wrote a nine-point collection of what contributes to success in career, in my diary.  Reproducing this along with a review of where i am in that chain.  On a scale of 6, these are my personal ratings of how i have evolved over the years..


Parameters                                        My Rating


Do Excellent work 5
Become Visible 2
Present the right Image 3
Avoid Deadwood 1
Control Information/resources  3
Develop good relations 1
Be Mobile  3
Help your boss succeed 4
Find a Sponsor1/2 (or0.5)


Must have terribly failed in the last one, while overly focused on the first .  Well this is  just my view - don't i enjoy that bit of constitutional right to be prejudiced and opinionated!!
  

Friends

                                  
I have only a handful of friends. I take considerable  time to get closer to anyone  but when i do it becomes doubly difficult for me  to move away. The best thing about my friendship is i am  rarely or rather hardly in regular touch with these closer ones - but we have never missed each other ever. Much like a mother - never visible but always available.

MVR - We studied together between my first and fifth grade. Till date he remains my role model. If anything, i am always intimidated by his simplicity. And he is  now such a towering personality that i have to be intimidated for more reasons.

GK - My love for music and the ability to understand music in its technical form was nurtured by this great soul. He is a different person - a great talent and has a tremendous future ahead. Will surely track him.

MGS - Another one in the GK mold and a living example of how hard work and perseverence can take someone to great heights. If simplicity is his virtue, piety is his strength.  He would always remind  me of my favorite theme "you cannot ignore talent". Well done MGS.

GD - The easiest way to describe this person is he combines something of everyone above minus the experience in formal education. As irony would have it, he has not gotten due recognition in life although everyone needs him for some reason or the other.

KS - It is said 'the hands that help are holier than the lips that pray'. But what do you call a person who is blessed with a pair of hands that is always helpful and lips that has only prayers for others' peace. Faith manifests in many forms. If anything, this person personifies the power of faith.
Will soon come up with a second in this series...

A Clearly Confused Mind

Sometimes i suffer from clarity of confusion. Sounds abstract? Well, it could. Wish i had a better explanation. Probably life is an art of drawing sufficient conclusions from insufficient premises!  Whatever,

Man never knows precisely what is right
So, torn between a purpose and a doubt
He first makes windows to let in the light
And then hangs curtains up to shut it out

Horizontal vs Vertical Money (Credit vs Cash)



While i do read a lot of economics i consider it sacrilegious to  harm anyone with my economic philosophies as i am myself a beginner and  a perpetual learner.

One recent article that interested me a lot is the quarterly BIS report. Not just quite topical., it offers an excellent perspective into the phenomenon of debt implosion and some of the references to the current US policies are most apt (do i enjoy that freedom of speech to even comment on a  BIS publication!!).  For someone who is an inveterate believer in the occurrence of another Great Depression like life-and-times (unless fiat currency system is banished), this report gives me a kick that i may not be wrong, afterall. Please read on..

   

Humor in Press

    
A leading financial daily carries this headline story about some alleged irregularities on forex remittances on behalf of a cricketing body. Nothing wrong. What is humorous is this ..

"...  Under FEMA norms, advance remittances worth more than $500,000 (INR 2.34 Cr) made by an Indian entity for any current account transaction, requires RBI's prior approval. Current accounts are maintained to run the day-to-day business of an organisation".

The correspondent had the same treatment for anything that was 'current account'.
 

The Zen of a Key Decision

     
If you call this a good decision, you oppose its reality.
If you do not call it a good decision, you ignore the fact.
Now what do you wish to call it?
   

Three Mistakes

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Everyone does commit a mistake or  two now and then. The beauty of life is in remembering these 'slips in the course', avoiding them  and carrying on with optimism. I am not about to mention the mistakes of my life - i would require a week of dedicated typing to list them. But i do have some lessons to share:
  • Never Trust Anyone - beyond a point, everyone has his/her self interest to look after and my trust in someone is always going to have its shelf-life depending on the trusted one's circumstances
  • Never fall in Love with your Organisation - An organisation, by and large, is an assemblage of people and processes and we (i mean the many Is like me) are afterall time-sensitive finite components where each of us has a pre-destined purpose to serve. An organisation cannot emote - its action is often guided by its many stewards. Do your duty with passion but remain dispassionate.
  • Never Protect a Laggard - This is best explained by an analogy: 'He exerted the perverse power of the weak. The greater his troubles, the more support he demanded. And received.  In any dependent relationship the protege can always control the protector by threatening to collapse'
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To The Eshwariahs with Love

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If there has ever been a phenomenon on earth it should be Mother and Teacher. I must consider myself fortunate to be living with such noble phenomena in these fast-paced, rat-raced dog-eat-dog times where humility and integrity are way behind in the long queue of ingredients for success.

I take this moment to salute all my teachers who are completely responsible for whatever little success i achieved in life. The fact that i still remain a Reluctant Guru is purely my effort - possibly my teachers did their best to take this horse to water but never could make it drink!!

It is human nature to think wisely and act foolishly. And it is yet another of those foibles of human mind to judge others. We often judge the teaching profession by its ability to turn morons into marvels. That is the biggest casuistry of all. A teacher is someone who shows the path. For those in the habit of trekking, you would come across guides - a teacher is much the same. He knows what and where the goal is and his role is confined to showing us the path. It is up to us to either reach there, improve over that or digress and fall astray.

In my student life, i have been singularly fortunate to have come across some great minds.  Never after pelf or pride, these selfless living Gods have contributed to the society much more than  my batch of 1988 could ever have!! 

Thanking all the teachers who helped shape me into a  humble and responsible human being, an ever grateful son, a sincere husband and a caring father. There is still a long way to go....
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Lord's - An Ignominy in Waiting

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I had nearly resolved not to write about cricket, astrology and movies - not because i understand their technicalities better but just because there are a million other things on earth to write about - but the latest scam surrounding Butt's team is threatening to bury the game at the same place it was almost born. Not many would know of a Grace or an Ackermann.  Lindwall and Larwood are part of Google's repository. The history about Lord's as cricket's mecca (to borrow a cliche) would soon join the ranks of East India Company among the modern day whizkids. And none of that is my concern. So please read on..

The issue that bogs me down is how come one frustrated human being turns a demi-approver and starts implicating the sources of her defeatism. Am speaking about a Veena who now is the fountain-head of all truths relating to a damning scam.  True, the Butts and the Asifs of the world found it easier to earn by stooping down to extents not generally seen in sports but isn't there a Limitation Act of sorts for anyone to turn into a bastion of honesty! What was the lady doing when she was enjoying the sun and beaches of Bangkok. Would she still have said these if her life was normal and colourful.  Still, that's only a smaller issue.

Will we react in the same manner if someone said that Bedi deliberately bowled donkey drops to Zaheer Abbas when the latter scored 274 a few decades ago, just because he was promised three nights and two days at his choicest hotel in South Mumbai.  As i wrote a few days ago, the incentives to be morally upright is far less today in our society. The unlucky ones get caught and the lucky ones get to preach. Still, however, these are less important aspects.

What is important to me is restoring Test Cricket its coveted status.  Don't bother if attendance is low during test matches. Don't we sometimes watch Golf on TV?  Well, my appeal is will anyone join me in "Save Test Cricket" campaign and light a million candles to cleanse Lords of the ignominy inflicted on it by a few lesser ethical souls.  Wally Hammond's square cut, Colin Cowdrey's cover drive and Randall's antics in the centenary ashes-test are as precious as the Big Ben.
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Remembering "The Fallen Idol"

I am not too sure if it is "The Basement Room" or "The Fallen Idol"  but Greene's classic story is worth recounting for its simplicity and suspense. 

This one is an intriguing story that is narrated as an insight  into the world of a  young boy who thinks their cook, whom he idolizes to a fault, has committed a murder. To complicate matters the boy has also seen the cook with a young damsel, who in the words of the  cook is his niece. In trying to keep the  cook’s secrets, the boy makes everything more complicated.  He tries to guard his secrets but ends up telling them. He bluffs to protect, even though he knows he should tell the truth. He resolves not to listen to adults' stories any more.  Secrets and lies become the dominant themes of his young life….

 Greene indeed at his best.  The boy is shown as the son of a diplomat, who gets his life's only attention and care from the cook. If one understood Greene's tormented childhood, one would find a root of his earlier days in each of his brilliant work.

Some years ago the story was supposed to be morphed into a movie with the same title  but my record of hollywood-watch is atrociously poor so not sure if a movie ever was made. 

Am a big fan of R K Narayan, who himself acknowledges Graham Greene as one of the best of this century. Suddenly finding this new-found interest in Greene's works.

ps: This post would rank as my most troubled effort - a dozen times i have tried to write, re-write, edit, change the font, change the font-size and out of frustration finally moved the entire text to a word document to perform my surgery  - only to discover the title stands miles away from the body!!  We wander about like cardboard symbols through a world that is paper-thin (that's a straight lift!!)

Whither the Rupee - An occassional commentary on financial markets

  

If we could first know where we are, and whither we are tending, we could then better judge what to do, and how to do it. ..

The above statement gleaned during a random read prompted me to look at the currency markets - and some basic economic data - to understand if we are about to move into a new trend. Or it is just another fight  between various forces in administration and regulation that shams as a trend and dies down under the weight of political priorities.

The trade policy for 2009-14 doesn't provide great insight. Nor do the projections of an estimated $125 billion trade deficit. The short term relief lies in managing the deficit via the Capital account - and the success of this strategy ironically is predicated on a shun-the-developed-markets and move-to-growth-economies theme among investors. With some Fed members already clamoring for another round of expansionary policy-line, there is some hope of another global financial market crisis or a prolonged slowdown across majors. And therefore, possible surge in capital flows into India. What is not clear is how this will pan out against an inflation fighting central bank. Sequencing of policy moves could do the trick.

Moving to the main item, Rupee looks vulnerable for now. Current account deficit (i would rather avoid trade deficit as it is a narrower benchmark) to GDP could well scale the handle-4 and that indeed is  an ominous event. I was a big fan of the sell rupee (and buy dollar) trade idea most of the times this year and that could come to pass. We should be prepared for a sustained rupee weakness in the months ahead.

Call it coincidence - rupee just got its new symbol and must probably be the fifth currency in the world of economics to get that coveted honor. And the crystal-ball gazing fraternity must soon be wondering if there was some bad vastu around its curves that makes rupee weaker. Much similar to the new bull that was installed in front of BSE a few years back and how much flak it drew for the sensex crash during those days!!


Cricket's Hour of Shame

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While we have heard similar incidents of betting related scams and scandals in cricket before, the one currently rocking the world of the gentleman's game is more disgusting as it promises to wipe out an entire team. I have always wondered how the two small impoverished (culturally and economically - courtesy long periods of strife) nations keep producing talent after talent (i am referring to Srilanka and Pakistan - the former war-ravaged for decades and the latter, much the same and  perennially sitting on political powder-keg) inspite of their socio-economic conditions but the catch exactly lies in those s-e conditions it now appears. Very little incentive to be morally upright?
                   Well, whatever be the fate of the game, it leaves a numbing pain in the heart. Some really good talent may go extinct. But who cares. The scary thought is what would happen if other guardians of society give a go-by to conscience. What if the opposite of what was envisioned in Atlas Shrugged happens?
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The Joys of Good Forecasting

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Astrology is quite close to the top of my favorites in life. Outside of sleeping, eating  or  spending time with my family i spend most of my time studying currency markets or astrology.  The thrills of getting a market move right is just as consummate as getting the future of someone bang on.
                   In astrology we practice something called as 'Blind Chart Analysis' - an exercise where someone in the forum provides birth details of a person and then asks 'what happened to him or her at a particular time'.  We, members, try to predict that event. A good focused work certainly yields accurate results.
                    Sometime recently i indulged in such an exercise.  The birth details of a lady was given and another date was given and the query was to predict what might have happened on that day. A few of us did a good job. I had the honor of doing it most accurately when i wrote 'the actress's parent must have died in an accident at that hour....'.  The moderator declared this as the nearest to the fact.  The person in question was a Hollywood star and the person that died was her  father who himself was a distinguished actor and he died in a helicopter crash during a stunt scene. The beauty of  good astrology is it allows the analyst to say the person under reference was an actor, there was a mishap, there was a parent involved and it was fatal...
                     While publishing the correct entries, the moderator also provided complete details. After this detail was provided i realised it was possible to do a better job - that is, to narrow it to 'father' than vaguely saying 'parent' and it was also possible to say he was also associated with arts. Must be one of those times when i (or anyone) misses the wood for  trees!!

The Sin of Whistle-Blowing

  

Some of my fanatically regular fans and a few of my sensation-seeking-acquaintances have started wondering what on earth has befallen me and why am i 'found'  missing!!  I am not. I don't know if there is anything called as introspective sabbatical but if there is one, i must be somewhere there.

I am feeling this queer feeling of having done something in haste - pretty confused about a few things and puzzled about a lot many.  Let me live this moment of test.

God has his own ways - a closing-window often means an opening-door somewhere.

And there is enough to create a best-seller!!!
That is if i choose to...

Someone said - speak out. I say to myself : "If you understand me, i don't have to explain myself. If you don't understand me, no amount of explaining will ever help".
 


ps: Found this interesting article in TOI - posting it with plenty of reluctance - reference the link below:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/spirituality/speaking-tree/The-saint-and-the-scorpion/articleshow/6451408.cms

A Cabbie's Day

Its the usual rainy season in Mumbai and if it rains it has to pour. What is a nature's fury worth for if it can't paralyse human life into total  limbo and despair. With all respects to Goddess Rain, i turn my focus to that ubiquitous bug like black motorcar, often mistaken for an effective means of conveyance between two points in this small city that is made to look large only by sheer traffic snarls and  congestion everywhere. Not that this is unique only to this city. That's how our other major cities are designed. Forget all that - afterall Mumbai is the financial capital of the country and contributes to a very large slice of its GDP.  It rewards hard work and punishes lethargy. A city to experience in everyone's lifetime.
                      I had an unfortunate day in life when i had to depend on that black bug for reaching home from the airport. There were atleast a dozen of them, idling around and feigning to be waiting to ferry people to their choicest destinations but none would want to come to a home that was just 4000 metres away. Each had a novel excuse not to allow me inside that crammed mobile box and perhaps it was their prosperity, i wouldn't know, but they didn't like even twice the normal fare for this distance.
                       I couldn't but recollect those years - the late nineties - when i could simply get into this magic van and tell him my destination and start pretending to be busy reading a newspaper or talking to a never-before-spoken-to school friend. Things have changed. It's a seller's market everywhere. But why is it being called as buoyant consumerism!!

Raising a Puppy

One needs to be very careful while promising. I am learning this fact day in day out.

I promised my daughter to get her a nice little puppy on her birthday, forgetting the fact that a nice puppy will not remain little for ever. So the house got its second kid, a boxer, professed to be born of vintage German parents. While it is a great entertainer and mood-raiser, it is a nuisance too in its own way. We need to think of her whenever we have to plan an outing beyond 4 hours - always on the lookout for a victim to be put behind at home when i want to go out. 
              From the door-delivering grocer to the motley maids and messengers that enter the house, everyone suffers his or her moments of scare and terror. Except the tiled floor and painted walls, nothing is allowed to be left unattended - for, the little devil would bite to bits anything that is unguarded. Always graceful, it is jealous too. Extremely playful, it is prankful too. 
                More about it as we grow together....  wait, it just found my Hush Puppy for a dessert. The next time i have to make a promise, i will take some time...





Murali - The real maestro

Salutations to Muthaiah Muralitharan.

800 wickets is an amazing feat. Coming from a  nation torn by war and strife for decades, he is the real class. What has often amazed me is his temparament and attitude. In my various dreams and wishes, i had always wanted to be a great offspinner and the seed of this desire was sown by murali, long back.  Its a different matter that i had no talent whatsoever to even grip across seam to spin the ball to the right.
                   True to its chivalrous nature and form, india presented the champion bowler with a memorable gift in his last appearance - by losing within whatever time was available.  On its day, India can lose to any team anywhere anyhow.

The Genius called Teacher

Am not sure how many of you would agree with me - 
God's greatest creation after mother is the teacher. 
We have taken both of them for granted.  I wouldn't be where i am if it was not for my teachers. The friends around me would say 'your teacher was bang on'   and the not-so-friendly around me would say the same thing!!!  Well, this piece is not about me. 
Pease read on....

One Night 4 college students were playing till late night and could not study for the test which was scheduled for the next day.  In the morning they thought of a plan. They made themselves look as dirty with grease and dirt. They then went up to the Dean and said that they had gone out to a wedding last night and on their return the tyre of  their car burst and they had to push the car all the way back and that they were in no condition to appear for the test.  So the Dean said they could have the re-test after 3 days. They thanked him and said they would be ready by that time.  On the third day they appeared before the Dean, the Dean said that as this was a Special Condition Test, all four were required to sit in separate classrooms for the test. They all agreed as they had prepared well in the last 3 days.
 
The Test consisted of 2 questions with a total of 100 Marks.
   



  Q.1.   Name of the car?? (2 marks)
       .......... .......... .........  
   Q.2.  Which tyre burst?   (98 MARKS)
        a) Front Left           b) Front Right
        c) Back Left            d) Back Right 


Sam's World

Beginning this day, i introduce a new character, Sam, whose lifes and times are chronicled in the following pages. I would write whenever i encounter this rare specimen. Sam is, in a way, my punching bag. My joys, frustrations, grief, ecstasy, stupidity, creativity.. all find a fountain-head in this imaginary creation.

Sam is no American. He is our very own Sathiyamangalam Atmaram Manikandan, a south Indian for sure but someone who has remained so terribly secretive that even the abbreviated name must have been an adaptation to suit some wily ends. I have heard him tell once that he hailed from a royal clan of Sathiyamangalam and the entire forests in that hilly tract belonged to his great grand fathers, later illegally occupied by that notorious bandit Veerappan. The society's records say he said this while addressing the members on "Old Women and Older Men's Day". It must have been said surely to impress someone that ignored him or he must have chosen that occasion to introduce that unverifiable history about his royal ancestors.

Whatever his intentions, there was something different in everything he did and he had attractive ways about him. Everyone liked to talk to him. There was not a single home in the surrounding locality where he was not treated as a member of the family. He was privy to the inside story of every family. From mediating in and patching up unrelated quarrels to being a self appointed watch dog of that small society he took part in every damned activity and if there was none, he would celebrate the birthday of King Rajavarma Johnson. If asked who this King was, he would say tearfully he was the 47th descendant of a Dutch Emperor and was related to him through his great-grand-aunt. He was fluent even when lying about history to historians.


Sam and the World Cup

"Banish them", a familiar voice screamed. I suddenly turned around to see our own Sam, with the day's paper in hand. Asked him what upset him so much that he should be so rudely angry but yet be so poetic in condemning someone. He said, "They want to make a 'manchuri' of the soothe-sayer Octopus Paul for consigning the Germans to the list of defeated teams. How unfair..". I took some time to realise he was refering to that phenomenon called Paul - that hapless animal caught in the greed and despair of a troubled mankind - which ventured to play probability theory and was unfortunate to have gotten it right at all times, so far. Sam is right for wrong reasons. While the Anands of the world use supercomputers to analyse the moves of Topalovs and Kasparovs, there is a parallel community that still depends on parrots, pigeons, snakes, turtles and octopus to understand the future. How would it look if a Topalov went beserk and smashed the motherboard of his computer after his loss to Anand!!!


Sam meets the Press


"Thirty three, this December" said Sam to the petite dame sitting in front of him all ears and eyes, and expecting Sam to pour out. I paused for a while to realise Sam said that about his age.  His range has often been between thirty-seven and forty-eight, but today was a new low. He added, his parents were third generation business tycoons  now settled in Trinidad but he had come back to India to study "Vijayanagar Architecture" some fifteen years ago.  At eighteen then, but why did the press woman not ask him, i wondered.
                   He was moved by the poverty and squalor in India's slums and had decided to spend his life here. Continuing further, he said he got his name from that maratha warrior Samnath Topeshwar, who was the most trusted commander of a Maratha king. I was shocked. How did our rustic Manikandan become Samnath and how much more could history suffer in the lips of this butcher. I tried to remember if there was anything that was being narrated to this press-staff true and there was nothing. Sam was a past master in this trade. Why  was he doing this,  what was his motive , what did he achieve and who exactly was he.. let's wait and see.  Meanwhile, he continued his sermons, ".. i trust in my ability to discern the good one from the pulp. I would not buy anything for a brand name. Brands are afterall a premium one pays for ignorance and laziness..".
                   Samnath Topeshwar  concluded the interview invoking some hymns which resembled sanskrit phonetics but i was sure they were not. He had always used History and Sanskrit to great advantage in all his dealings.


Sam on 'Self-Confidence'

"Look at the umbrella. It cannot stop the rains. But it can certainly make you stand in the rains without getting drenched. Self-confidence in yourself is much the same. It cannot give you success by itself, but it can certainly help you to face challenges", Sam started the day this way. Must have been my bad karma that i bumped into him during my morning walk and i had to hear all this unsolicited profundity. Sam loved to speak. He just needed a pair of ears in front of him. He is believed to have spoken to my daughter for 6 hours non-stop on what she should become when she grows up - and all of this when my cute one was just 8 months old.



Sam eats Idlis


Sathiyamangalam Atmaram Manikandan, popularly Sam, arrived a full fifteen minutes late. We had decided to meet for a farewell to a family in the society.

What would otherwise have been a small house-to-house breakfast or lunch or dinner get-together five years ago was today extravaganzaed as a breakfast get-together in a suburban 3 star restaurant. How things change. Man is not respected if he wants to be simple and practical. Nobody trusts my explanation if I don’t do it from a power-point. I can get away with a canard if it comes when I am inside a three-piece while I have to prove my identity with a PAN card if I walk in simple casuals. It’s the era of the flamboyant and the flaunting fosters..
                          The Senior Navy Officer in the neighborhood was getting back to his native village after a thirty-odd years of distinguished service and his last place of work was our city. After all he has helped many a child drop to his or her nursery or school in his car, has taken most of the society’s population to official parties as his relatives where some of us have become his brothers or sisters in the office muster. He once called me his cousin-brother and on another occasion my wife as his sister.

Well, here we were at the breakfast table to sing paeans of his association with us and how we were to remember the senior sailor for the next many generations. The concept of a breakfast was, as usual, suggested by Mr. Sam, the good Samaritan of the society, and here he was – inordinately late. Sam believed in being a cynosure at all occasions. Either he would come late to make his presence felt or come quite early (enough) to create a ruckus about the importance of punctuality for those that turned in late. He had to be noticed. Talk is even if Sam were to attend a funeral, he would not miss the chance to attract. He would dress up the way the hero of the latest Tamil/Telugu or Hindi movie would have done on a similar event. So much for his need to be noticed..
                         As is often the case with any Indian get together, we were twelve of us that included four children. And we required twenty-two different items. Sam stole the show yet again. He first shouted why we should not have started earlier and when his turn for choosing what he wanted to eat came, he said he preferred to keep it light and would settle for Cathatori with veil parmesan and wind up with Tortoni. We were all shocked. We haven’t heard anything so atrocious at a dining table. I quickly sensed what Sam was upto. Either he would want to say his Italian friends have introduced him to the healthiest food on earth or he picked this during his stay in Dubai (he would attribute his one week absconding last month to a Dubai trip). In either case, this was way too much for a breakfast and I dreaded the moment. Ironically, Sam had very recently exhorted others on the virtues of eating leaf and grass and how the great Mahatma lived on goat’s milk and peanuts and yet lived for 102 years, which no one contested.

The waiter was shocked beyond recognition and said the hotel did not serve Mexican food, to which Sam angrily asked him to look at the atlas and be aware that a place called Italy existed and these were the delicacies of Italian orthodoxy. My suspicions were coming true. But good luck, he stopped there and again said with seething anger, “get me idlis and saambaazh”. I interrupted to clarify it was ‘sambaar, which was usually served in buckets with large ladles to proffer..’. Others ordered too. In sometime, we all started. Sam did mention about how Italian food was prepared and how he has started admiring global food (world music, global warming, global economy and now global food..) and that Olive Oil was the only liquid that deserved to be consumed.

Sam almost ordered for chopsticks but ended up eating with a knife and forks. Idlis with a knife, my daughter screamed – my wife instantly throttled the kid’s neck for raising another topic. We did nothing but watch him eat idlis and sambar. He ate them as if it was some deadly poison being administered to a recalcitrant criminal and ended up saying, he hated Indian food because it was over-cooked. No one could refute. Everyone realized the blunder of agreeing to get together to celebrate an occasion with Sam as an invitee. For many of us, it was a regret it was not Sam’s farewell. All of us wished Sam would run away again and not be seen for many months.

Three Tears for Argentina

My knowledge of football is quite limited. Have been a cricketer myself and typical of a schoolboy's fanaticism, hated any sport that i didn't play. I became a football lover after watching Maradona play and became an addict after the last world cup.
Saturday's match between Germany and Argentina was one of the best in recent times. As i watched and smsed my brother "Germany has a 9-9-1 formation while Argentina is playing that jaded 4-4-2..", i was silently crying within, feeling strongly for that stocky man in a 'not-made-for-him' suit. We will miss this legendary footballer on the field and may possibly get to spot him only in stands hereafter. I have not seen Pele play but Maradona is my Pele. I am so used to the volatile fortunes of Indian cricket that a defeat on the field hardly ever impacts me more than a fly on my nose. This one, would for sure for sometime..

How very weak the very strong are..

Been reading quite a bit in the press about this suicide of a yesteryears model. Rightly or wrongly, the press feasts on such events. Whatever may be the reason and whoever may have been responsible, what intrigues is that someone who has braved the more vulnerable times of life - to me the entire twenties - chooses to call it quits. Have personally and directly seen my dear friend reducing himself to ashes with his wife in frustration - but that was many years ago. Nothing has changed in life. Except for a few sea-links and highways, a few hundred malls and a hundred odd more ways of getting distracted in the name of entertainment, nothing has changed. Man is as confused and fickle as he was a quarter century ago. Am certainly not a fatalist but am disturbed by such events.

Smart Quip

Told my cute little one "You should dream. Your future depends on dreams. Great ideas are born out of dreams.." and i got into my typically inane philosophical rant when she suddenly interrupted me rudely and said "ok appa, pls go and sleep now. You wont be able to dream otherwise..".

On Sports

  
So it's yet again that anemic tried-tested-and-found-successful syndrome that keeps the Lakshmans and the Dravids of the country in the team. Not that they don't deserve a place but when are we building for the future? At a time when we get to watch electrifying WC football or see that historic tennis at Wimbledon the other day between Isner and Mahut, it could be wicked casuistry to speak about Indian cricket. It's just that seething sinking feeling when one sees Ghana/Uruguay/Chile or similar countries participating in world cups while a 100 cr populated country's tennis heroine falters at the initial rounds without a whimper.
  

Another Terrible Transit

Need to figure out if planetary transits have anything to do with my blogging frequency. For those cursorily checking into this blog to see if any updates appear, pls scroll down to see under the title "My Dateless and Timeless Diary".

Speaking of transits, the nodes get stationary to slow moving around 17 degrees and Cancer Ascendants face the fury. With both Jupiter and Saturn mutually aspecting, this might go down as a terrible phase. If my reading of planetary transits is correct, this jupiter-saturn transit should take us economically to the 1930s or the era of great-depression.

I remember an old native joke - once a frustrated person approached an astrologer for advice and remedies. The astrologer looked at this person's chart and said "Things look quite bad for the next 6 months and you will suffer a lot". The person asked optimistically, "what would happen after six months?", to which the astrologer said "You will get used to your miseries...".