Back to markets again.
I should admit with straight honesty that i must have lost more money than anyone else betting on the Chinese bubble over the last few years. Therefore, when i read the story in the following link, i couldn't help pulling out my trading log and rub my eyes again.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8261740/Hedge-funds-bet-China-is-a-bubble-close-to-bursting.html
The more interesting part of this cliched story about the bubble is that i sent in a note on Friday morning about how i saw a possible top-formation in CRB Commodity index (340 looks like a top to me) and how commodity currencies could come off. I also circulated some trading themes on this set-up. And later in the day when China hiked (yet again), i thought i had pulled a rabbit afterall!! Coming as it does close to my call to sell India (both the index and the currency) and seeing them happen to a T, this report in the Telegraph gives me a kick.(for those back home, Sensex and Nifty looked ominously lower a week ago to me)
Well, a long way to go. Two things however interest me and hence all this indulgence in vanity. How will this 'sell china' funds work and how will a multi-trillion dollar reserve country respond to a crisis if ever it happens. In 2010 the shanghai index lost possibly the highest among notable economies and yet nothing happened.
Will continue on this theme again after i cover my Oz shorts!!!
ps: squared oz at a decent gain. should not have done so given my larger perspective but then a bird in hand is worth two in bush.
ps: squared oz at a decent gain. should not have done so given my larger perspective but then a bird in hand is worth two in bush.
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